Vaporware: The Information SuperHypeWay
by Dave Paulsen
dave@reststop.net
Copyright© 1994, Dave Paulsen and ComputorLink Magazine
I’m going into curmudgeon mode this month, perhaps it’s the upcoming holiday season with all of its
attendant hype. Whatever the reason, I feel compelled to try to inject a reality check.
Th “Information Superhighway” is a fantasy promulgated by the telecommunication and cable
conglomerates, fed by a barely understood (but politically correct) idealism from the US government, and hyped beyond believability by a media who understands it even less. The ad campaigns currently being waged by AT&T—you will—and Cox Cable seem to be last ditch efforts to keep consumers from taking advantage of technology that is currently available by promising blue-sky scenarios. These scenarios may become reality, or close to it, in the future, but not for at least five years, and it will be closer to ten before the majority of consumers can take advantage of them. By then, however, most people will already have similar capabilities through other channels.
The ad campaigns are in the (grand?) tradition of the computer software industry which likes to pre-
announce products, sometimes before said product is even in development. These attempt to keep
consumers from buying competitors products, as they raise doubt in the consumers mind and in some cases cast aspersions on competitors product features.
The US government finds itself in a real quandary. It feels compelled to push an idealistic platform of
“universal service,” which is really a ‘30s solution to a ‘90s problem. To the governments credit they also realize that they must help foster competitiveness, which in this case means “open access.”
I can only hope that open access wins, since it levels the playing field and increases the choices
consumers have. Universal service decreases the choices since only the big players can afford to subsidize what are currently the less profitable areas. In the long run, though, it is competition that will bring the prices down to where it is possible to provide service to anyone, anywhere, who desires it.
It is almost too easy to buy into some of the conspiracy theories being thrown around, mainly because
there is indeed a shred (or more) of truth in some (most) of the ideas in them, to wit:
- The media is scared by a publishing technology that does not include, or at least in large part bypasses, them. Thus, they cannot provide and control the content.
- The cable companies are worried about the statistics that show the Internet will be in more American households than cable by next summer. Thus, they cannot provide and control the content.
- The phone companies are worried about lost revenues due to the interconnectedness of the global
Internet through myriad access points that don’t allow for metering. Thus, they cannot provide and
control the content.
- The government is worried about loss of control of information sources, flow, and content, and citizen’s ability to have secure communication, even from (especially from?) the government through available public key encryption. Thus, they cannot provide and control the content.
They all miss the fact that there are roles for all of them to play in the building of the Information
Superhighway, but they must be content for their piece, instead of the megalomaniacal idea that they can do it all all by themself.
Some Facts
Video on demand - Well, there is no demand (or darn little, anyway). What is currently available, like pay-per-view movies, has a national average usage of 3.5 movies per year. Tests being conducted by US West and TCI in Colorado, using hand-picked and pre-qualified volunteer households for video on demand are averaging 2.5 movies per month. This is being touted as a huge success since it’s about 12 times the national average. But when you notice that Mom & Pop video rental stores average one video rental per week per household, this still doesn’t seem like a whole lot of demand.
Real time video conferencing - We are being told we need to wait for cable or fiber to the home, but this technology is currently available over the Internet MBONE (multimedia backbone) using video
compression techniques and as little as 128K of bandwidth.
Sound and video in e-mail - Once again, this is currently available over the Internet with MIME (Multi-purpose Internet Mail Extensions.)
Affordability - Industry analysts are saying that set-top boxes must be available for under $500 before consumers will buy in large enough quantities to make the technology cost effective. Currently there is one company who say they could produce one for $1000, but most are saying the price would be closer to $2000. The current Time Warner test bed in Orlando, Florida is costing a little over $5000 per household.
So, the choice is yours. You can wait for promises of what the future will bring. Or you can join the
CyberSpace community today and take advantage of what is currently available over the Internet.
Questions or comments about these Web pages? Send e-mail to
dave@reststop.net
Copyright © 1994-1997 by CyberNaut Rest Stop™
